COVID-19

POST-COVID19 STRATEGIC THINKING EXERCISE

Sponsors and donors have access to a strategic thinking exercise based on scenarios, along with tutorial and custom support. The exercise is helpful in (re)assessing long-term plans, strategies or investments. Please contact us for more details.

WHAT WE SAID BEFORE THE COVID-19 CRISIS 

WHAT IF – The risk of global pandemics has been in our scenarios since the beginning of our project in 2013. It was not hard to imagine. We had SARS in Toronto in 2002-2003 and plenty of other examples and signals to learn from. COV19 was previsible, and avoidable.

Excerpt CANADA TOWARDS 2030 (Eric Noël Canada Towards 2030 Essay, released June 24th, 2013)


GEOPOLITICS TOWARDS 2030

Although traditional conflicts will not disappear, geopolitics in the next ten or twenty years will most likely be dictated by black swan events – such as sudden instability in China (spurred maybe by a major pandemic).

CANADA IN THE WORLD TOWARDS 2030

(A Canada with pro-liberal, free trade and globalist values confronted with…)

Paradoxically, it might be a resumption of the anti-globalisation movement, perhaps stimulated by an increased number of recessions, more pandemics, and a renewed rise of nationalism, unionism, environmentalism and protectionism that will make the global governance issue quite different in 2030.

GLOBALISATION TOWARDS 2030

Going forward, globalisation will be both sustainable and reversible. […]

Reversible, as possible resurgences of trade barriers and protectionism remain a constant possibility. Problems will appear, relating to currency manipulation or exchange rate mechanisms, sovereign defaults, or perhaps black swan events (pandemics; wars; solar storms; cyber-attacks that collapse telecommunication, transportation, and banking networks; oil price shocks; etc.), which could either stall or reshape global business as we know it.

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TOWARDS 2030

Technological risks will also appear: from Internet, telecommunication, or power-grid collapses to counterfeit medication, self-generated threats (e.g., Y2K+ computer viruses, “D. difficile” bacterial infections, antiviral drug-resistant flu, GMO cross-fertilisation), cyber-crime, and, surprisingly to some, a decrease in affordable or accessible technology (due to inflation, bottlenecks, resource scarcity, monopolies, and protectionism).

For our discussions examining the future of demographics, the environment and urbanisation, the Canada Towards 2030 essay advanced the following scenario: “…new diseases, spreading via new means, (with) severe consequences” including commercial and socio-economic hibernation.

As the most Eastern provinces of Canada would face acute aging challenges towards 2030, the essay suggested that in addition to youth protection agencies, social affairs ministers would consider the need for “Senior Protection Agencies – a concept that became more relevant with the high number of coronavirus fatalities in our nursing homes.

  • You can also read an excerpt of the E&Y – Oxford Analytica Strategic Risks Report 2008 here, released in November 2007. CLICK HERE TO OPEN PDF

WHAT WE SAID DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS        

WHEN “WHAT IF” BECOMES “WHAT’S NEXT” : 8 POST-COVID SCENARIOS (March 28, 2020)

Once the “what if” happened, improvisation suddenly gripped our daily life and confinement became our greatest ally against SARS-COV2. But we must anticipate the “what’s next”. What will your strategy be once the virus becomes controlled and curable and the economy and society fully reopen? As we transition from abnormal to normal conditions, how will you cope? To help you envision that future path, we offer below a trilemma with eight basic scenarios (written in late March 2020). You must adapt them to your own circumstances, refine some details according to when you are reading these scenarios and where you are in terms of geography and resources. You can also formulate the number of customized scenarios you want in order to explore the post-COVID environment, its new risks and opportunities and your options. Tutorial and custom support is available to sponsors and donors.

POST-COVID19 STRATEGIC THINKING EXERCISE

Sponsors and donors have access to a strategic thinking exercise based on scenarios, along with tutorial and custom support. The exercise is helpful in (re)assessing long-term plans, strategies or investments. Please contact us for more details.

THE COVID-19 SCENARIO TRILEMMA

…WHAT’S NEXT (March 28,2020)

In order to foresee the post-crisis environment, we can project interactions between the three following factors and eight scenarios:

PEOPLE: Will individuals be confident and optimistic that the worst is over, or not? How fast will workers and consumers start to win back lost time, income and habits?

COMMERCE: Will companies and investors be ready to reboot? How complex or easy, how weak or how strong, how slow or how fast will business reactivation be? Will the private sector reglobalise or deglobalise?

GOVERNANCE: Will politicians and the public sector be hesitant and inefficient, or determined and productive? Will regulations be pro-growth, too cautious or too interventionist?

Go back up to list.

HYPOTHESIS: COVID-19 IS CONTROLLED AND CURABLE (no vaccination) (March 28, 2020)

WHAT DO WE MEAN?

Transmission is controlled: (1) a peak in daily mortalities has been reached at least two months ago; (2) new hospitalisation cases are at easily manageable levels for health care systems, themselves equipped to face occasional outbreak; (3) with the capacity to test more people, infected areas and infection vectors have been defined and traced; (4) effective preventive measures based on better data and knowledge protect the most vulnerable persons.

The disease is curable: there is no vaccine yet but (1) medications and protocols prevent mortality; (2) they also reduce convalescence, pains and chronic effects; (3) people can find ways to boost and maintain their immune defence; and (4) test results show that a large number of COV19 positive cases are asymptomatic (highly resistant to the new virus).

The more trust People, Governance and Commerce can place in controlled and curable, higher is the confidence in and chance of an economic recovery. How long before they get to this state will certainly influence their respective ability to restart and greatly complexify the environment they will return to. In one or two weeks from now, or in two to three months?!

Go back up to list.

SCENARIO 1:  “HUMPTY DUMPTY COUGHED AND HAD A GREAT FALL”

Sick Citizens — Fragmented Economy — Passive Government

Recurrent COVID cases, long confinement or recovery periods, and long-term health effects hold back workers and consumers. They work and spend less, they don’t travel far, they save more and have new priorities and expectations. Faced with inequality of recovery and income, social cohesion is more difficult. With lower fuel consumption and a smaller Canadian oil sector, climate change takes a step-back behind health and welfare priorities. On-going social distancing creates a service and retail sectors depression, localized real estate price collapse and more bankruptcies. The manufacturing, resource and agricultural sectors continue to suffer from a scarcity of (foreign) buyers, employees, funds and supplies as well as overcapacity, operational and logistical gaps, and stagflation. Exporters are scrambling to adapt to asynchronous global recovery, price wars, rising protectionism, and new supply and value-added chains. Capital access is characterized by risk-averse investors and higher cost of financing. Poor economic conditions have a severe impact on government revenues and finance ministers can’t maintain emergency subsidies. Financial levers have reached their limits. Meanwhile, fatigued political leaders are oft-indecisive and divided; geopolitical tensions risk a new “Cold War”; and politicians start to miss initiatives and resources and impose restrictions that are detrimental to social fabric, economic recovery, and trust in public institutions.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 2:  “ALL THE KING’S HORSES COULD DO, WAS WAIT”

Sick Citizens — Fluid Economy — Passive Government

Recurrent COVID cases, long confinement or recovery periods, and long-term health effects hold back workers and consumers. They work and spend less, they don’t travel far, they save more and have new priorities and expectations. Faced with inequality of recovery and income, social cohesion is more difficult. With lower fuel consumption and a smaller Canadian oil sector, climate change takes a step-back behind health and welfare priorities. Slow economic conditions have a negative impact on government revenues and finance ministers can’t maintain emergency subsidies. Meanwhile, fatigued political leaders are oft-indecisive and divided; geopolitical tensions risk a new “Cold War”; and politicians start to miss initiatives and resources and impose restrictions that are detrimental to social fabric, economic recovery, and trust in public institutions. Despite COVID exacerbating existing labour supply issues, the private sector is improvising and turning around. Foreign demand resumes and new supply and value-added chains are addressable as operational and logistical gaps are being fixed, liquidity and supply issues are managed by companies who had made provisions and risk plans pre-crisis. Capital access has normalized. The result is that after significant write-offs and pains, most Canadian enterprises are nearing or passing break-even, projects and investments are being reactivated and new companies are launched.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 3:  “WHILE THE KING’S AMBULANCE GOES ROUND AND ROUND”

Sick citizens — Fragmented economy — Proactive government

Even though most citizens find support in the continuation of special public programs (unemployment benefits, lower income taxes, direct subsidies and material assistance) and of extraordinary health, safety and social measures, recurrent COVID cases, long confinement or recovery periods, and long-term health effects hold back workers and consumers. They work and spend less, they don’t travel far, they save more and have new priorities and expectations. Faced with inequality of recovery and income, social cohesion is more difficult. With lower fuel consumption and a smaller Canadian oil sector, climate change takes a step-back behind health and welfare priorities. Despite good COVID-crisis governmental programs and well sequenced reopening plans, on-going social distancing creates a service and retail sectors depression, localized real estate price collapse and more bankruptcies. The manufacturing, resource and agricultural sectors continue to suffer from a scarcity of (foreign) buyers, employees, funds and supplies as well as overcapacity, operational and logistical gaps, and stagflation. Exporters are scrambling to adapt to asynchronous global recovery, price wars, rising protectionism, and new supply and value-added chains. Capital access is characterized by risk-averse investors and higher cost of financing. Both workers and enterprises are turning towards governments for on-going help and emergency subsidies, and post-COVID crisis support. Resilient political leaders are united and resolved in pursuing new initiatives and plans that can prevent economic and social collapse.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 4:  “ALL THE KING’S HORSES AND ALL HIS MEN, COULDN’T PUT HUMPTY TOGETHER AGAIN”

Sick Citizens — Fluid Economy — Proactive Government

Even though most citizens find support in the continuation of special public programs and of extraordinary health, safety and social measures, recurrent COVID cases, long confinement or recovery periods, and long-term health effects hold back workers and consumers. They work and spend less, they don’t travel far, they save more and have new priorities and expectations. Faced with inequality of recovery and income, social cohesion is more difficult. With lower fuel consumption and a smaller Canadian oil sector, climate change takes a step-back behind health and welfare priorities. Despite COVID exacerbating existing labour supply issues, the private sector is improvising with the help of efficient public policies and is turning around. Foreign demand resumes along a synchronous global recovery, and new supply and value-added chains are addressable as operational and logistical gaps are being fixed, liquidity and supply issues are managed by companies who had made provisions and risk plans precrisis. Capital access has normalized. The result is that after significant write-offs and pains, most Canadian enterprises are nearing or passing break-even and with balanced government support, projects and investments are being reactivated and new companies are launched. Resilient political leaders are united and resolved in maintaining generous programs and in pursuing new initiatives and plans that can prevent economic and social collapse.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 5:  “HUMPTY TOGETHER AGAIN, SHOUTED WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?!”

Healthy Citizens — Fragmented Economy — Passive Government

Short convalescence and isolation period for newly infected COVID cases, whose number continues to decline, coupled with historic pent up demand speed up workers and consumers come back and optimism. Social mobilization against both health risk and economic meltdown (pro-buy-local), individual focus on retraining or upskilling, a commitment to climate
adaptation and mitigation redefine behaviours. However, for many, it is a jobless recovery. Most enterprises are losing money, are not hiring back workers, and are delaying projects. The service, retail and energy sectors show a high level of bankruptcies. The manufacturing and
agricultural sectors continue to suffer from a scarcity of (foreign) buyers, funds and supplies as well as overcapacity, operational and logistical gaps, and stagflation. Exporters are scrambling to adapt to asynchronous global recovery and capital access is characterized by risk-averse investors and higher cost of financing. Poor economic conditions have a severe impact on
government revenues and finance ministers can’t maintain all emergency subsidies. Anxious political leaders are oft-indecisive and divided; and weakened governments start to miss initiatives and resources and impose restrictions that are not overly detrimental to the general public but add political uncertainty to the private sector.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 6: “HUMPTY, TOGETHER AGAIN, WITH THE HORSES, DID NOT WAIT FOR THE KING”

Healthy Citizens — Fluid Economy — Passive Government

Short convalescence and isolation period for newly infected COVID cases, whose number continues to decline, coupled with historic pent up demand speed up workers and consumers come back and optimism. Social mobilization against both health risk and economic meltdown (pro-buy-local), individual focus on retraining or upskilling, a commitment to climate adaptation and mitigation redefine behaviours. The private sector is also turning around. Domestic and foreign demand resume along a synchronous global and provincial recovery, and new supply and value-added chains are addressable as operational and logistical gaps are being fixed, liquidity and supply issues are managed by companies who had made provisions and risk plans pre-crisis. After significant write-offs and pains, capital access, investment and profitability have normalized. Citizens and businesses confidence endure impoverished governments and increased political instability characterized by anxious, indecisive and divided politicians whose hesitation between “exit” policies, interventionism and higher or new taxation are counterproductive.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 7:  “HUMPTY AND THE KING, COULDN’T PUT THE HORSES TOGETHER AGAIN”

Healthy Citizens — Fragmented Economy — Proactive Government

Most citizens have found support in the continuation of special public programs and of adequate health, safety and social measures: Canadians are ready to prudently return to their normal activities. Short convalescence and isolation period for newly infected COVID cases, whose number continues to decline, coupled with historic pent up demand speed up workers and consumers come back and optimism. Social mobilization against both health risk and economic meltdown (pro-buy-local), individual focus on retraining or upskilling, a commitment to climate adaptation and mitigation redefine behaviours. However, for many, it is a jobless recovery. Despite good COVID-crisis governmental programs, additional stimuli, and well-sequenced reopening plans, most enterprises are losing money, are not hiring back workers, and are delaying projects. The service, retail and energy sectors show a high level of bankruptcies. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors continue to suffer from a scarcity of (foreign) buyers, funds and supplies as well as overcapacity, operational and logistical gaps, and stagflation. Exporters are scrambling to adapt to asynchronous global recovery and capital access is characterized by risk-averse investors and higher cost of financing. Despite business gloom, resilient citizens and politicians are resolved in pursuing their respective plans and avoiding social collapse.

Go back up to scenarios list.

SCENARIO 8:  “Humpty Dumpty climbed back on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great scare.”

Healthy Citizens — Fluid Economy — Proactive Government

For Canadians, the gradual withdrawal of COVID-crisis public programs and of extraordinary health, safety and social measures, except in support of the new or last patients (with short convalescence or confinement), allows for a fast-paced return to consumer and workplace “normalcy”. Social mobilization against both health risk and economic meltdown (pro-buy local), individual focus on retraining or upskilling, a commitment to climate adaptation and mitigation redefine behaviours. Businesses progressively let go of governmental programs as smart state interventions in terms of deconfinement, industrial priorities, laws, supply chains, public infrastructure and procurement, international security and trade have had positive effects. Domestic and foreign demand resume along a synchronous global and provincial recovery, and new supply and value-added chains are addressable as operational and logistical gaps are being fixed, liquidity and supply issues are managed by companies who had made provisions and risk plans pre-crisis. After significant write-offs and pains, capital access, investment and profitability have normalized, and new companies are launched. Relieved after such a pandemic shock, responsible governance aims to rebalance public finance and to make plans for the next “what if”.

Go back up to scenarios list.

POST-COVID19 STRATEGIC THINKING EXERCISE

Sponsors and donors have access to a strategic thinking exercise based on scenarios, along with tutorial and custom support. The exercise is helpful in (re)assessing long-term plans, strategies or investments. Please contact us for more details.